Enlightenment logic sharing: Iron ore has been reversing nearly 75% since June, has the black logic changed? With the long holiday approaching, what does the outflow of funds at the end of the month mean? In the long and short confrontation, the position of great difference, look at the logic of enlightenment investment! The market's expectations for the fourth quarter have become confusing, and Enlightenment has helped people sort out the logic by answering questions and clarify the current operational strategy to share with you.
I. Enlightenment and answering questions
Black article
How does the black system differentiate? How to go in the later stage?
A: To do a good job in black market, we must find the core from the three industrial chains of steel coke, in order to understand the law and rhythm of price changes. Enlightenment has always emphasized that the core is steel enterprise profits.
Refuse to ** 2017/9/27 9:09:41
The rhythm of the market evolution is very fast, and perhaps it will become the norm afterwards. How does the teacher see this black, especially the rapid decline of coal in the absence of large changes in the spot, followed by continued rebound or continued decline. What is the biggest impact on the chemical industry in the next winter?
A: This is determined by the mutual relationship of the black industry chain. Enlightenment is based on the macro industry. Macro is the “stabilizer†of price. Macroscopic uncertain factors lead to this adjustment, and iron ore is the black industrial chain. The logic is the weakest, and the adjustment is the first. As the price of raw materials fell, the profits of steel enterprises continued to rise. Under the condition of weakening demand, high profits gave steel enterprises downward price adjustment, resulting in the downward price of rebar and hot coil. The excessive interpretation of the impact of environmental protection in the early stage also led to a downward revision of the black collective. In the past, this logic has been discussed.
For the chemical industry, it should be noted that the supply-side reform policy has little impact on the industry. The industry clearing from the supply side has not appeared. Therefore, there is no supply and demand contradiction between supply and demand. Only recent environmental factors have strengthened expectations of tight supply. It should be noted that the “2+26†production restriction policy affects the heating season supply, so the implementation of this policy in the fourth quarter may increase supply tension, especially coking coal coke.
Bitter****** 2017/9/27 9:12:15
Teacher, I have been paying attention to enlightenment and I am obeying your logic! Black analysis is really too! I want to ask the teacher, the thread is now "Golden Nine" and it will be empty. Will "Silver Ten" appear?
A: Combing the core factors affecting black: macro and supply-side reform policies. “Golden September and Silver 10†is more of a seasonal expectation. The above two core factors exist. Seasonal factors are not the main contradiction. More depends on whether demand can continue.
J****** 2017/9/27 10:20:26
Can the teacher talk about the fourth quarter? If you say that the adjustment is in place, you can continue to buy. Do you think that it will copy the big market of 2016?
A: The black market started in 2016, which runs through the main line is the improvement of profits under the supply-side reform policy. This has been emphasized many times on the enlightened Weibo. The clearing of outdated production capacity (strip steel) leads to the recovery of corporate profits. This core factor depends on whether demand is sustained and the environmental protection policy is overweight. It is doomed that this heating season will not be calm. The rapid decline in prices will create a new balance between supply and demand. This year's 4th quarter and 2016 are different factors. In the contradiction between the downward trend of demand and the impact of environmental factors on emotions, it is difficult to replicate the main market in the fourth quarter of 2016, but the volatility is inevitable because there is no one. The factor becomes an absolute long and short lead.
æŽ****** 2017/9/27 10:14:24
May I ask the teacher about the possibility of rebar reeling in the fourth quarter?
A: Every month, every step of the logic changes, and we must grasp the core factors of change.
Li****** 2017/9/27 14:30:08
Teacher, what do you mean by coke in the fourth quarter?
A: The current supply of coke is tight, and the impact of environmental protection policy is the biggest. Therefore, the contradiction in the heating season is a major concern.
Plastic ******** 2017/9/27 9:48:01
Is the driving force on the basic surface of the thread strong? Can you buy it now?
Answer: The buying conditions of the thread: macro stability, stable price of raw materials, stable demand in the market, and must be available at the same time.
Bi****** 2017/9/27 10:43:02
Teacher, ask, black demand weakens. Which angle do you look at and analyze from? This year's land sales area is better than last year. The sales volume of excavators is also much better than in the past. The purchase volume of Shanghai stock snails is also the best in recent years, and the inventory is not high. Why do you say that demand is facing down?
A: Demand is always seeking a balance in price changes. The social stock of rebar has been gradually picking up since June. The growth rate of industrial added value slowed down to the lowest in the year in August, and this news also made the market over-optimistic expectations of pre-cooling. In the high profit of steel enterprises, the capacity utilization rate has maintained a historical high, and the demand conditions for maintaining the current balance are still relatively demanding. Does the price reflect the current demand situation? Is it overvalued? It is the focus of the market's constant game.
Know ** 2017 2017/9/27 11:04:01
Hello, teacher! Iron ore, thread, coking coal, which opportunity is bigger in the future, should you see more? Thank you
A: The opportunities for supply of tight varieties are large, and the opportunities for short supply are large. There are also staged demands, macro conditions and funding concerns at the time.
J****** 2017/9/27 13:31:25
The teacher asked, the iron ore is so strong, it is the first time after the decline, what? Falling in place?
A: Since the current round of iron ore 1801 has fallen since 609.5, it has fallen by nearly 150 points. The enlightenment is short near 580, and the income is close to 120 points. The narrowing of the near-distance monthly spread indicates that the market does not recognize the downside of the absolute price of the current price. A similar phenomenon occurred in June this year, when the iron ore fell at the end of a round.
2. Agricultural products 000061, stock articles
End****** 2017/9/27 10:24:57
Does corn starch still have the logic to continue to rise? In the recent past, I have repeatedly rushed back and pulled back, can I look higher? Does the fuel vehicle exit schedule give corn longer to support ethanol production?
A: From a short-term perspective, corn and starch are in a relatively balanced state. The reform of the agricultural supply side is a long-term slow effect on the clearing of corn production capacity. The withdrawal of fuel vehicles will also have a long-term impact on corn ethanol demand. The futures we participate in are not tolerant of time, so these factors have limited impact on our participation in corn futures.
Li****** 2017/9/27 10:31:09
Teacher, analyze the next bean
A: According to the logic analysis of enlightenment, the macro impact is small, the industrial logic contradiction is not prominent, the capital attention is low, and there is no need for any conditions that the trend market needs.
Know ** 2017 2017/9/27 9:39:25
Hello, teacher! What do you think of palm oil? Thank you
A: Palm oil we started to enter the market in July. At that time, the market was pessimistic, while palm oil was in low domestic inventory. The supply of horse brown was lower than the historical period. The excessive expectation of the harvest of US soybeans also lowered the price of palm oil. Ignoring the next August-November is a season of easy rise and fall, as evidenced by statistics from the past decade. Pessimistic expectations give us a very good margin of safety, which is very important. Many people see that they don't make money in the direction, and more because they ignore the margin of safety. A good margin of safety allows Enlightenment customers to calmly face shocks and stick to the current bullish logic.
Zhang****** 2017/9/27 11:02:55
I saw the teacher's palm oil article in the poker expert and learned that you built 5200 more. I really want to know the fate of palm oil in the first half of the year. How do teachers see signs of bulls? In addition, will this market continue into the winter? Are there any opportunities to enter?
A: First of all, the bad mood of excessive overdraft in the first half of the year has caused inventory to fall to a low level. Second, the reduction in output has driven the reversal of pessimistic expectations. The palm oil high-yield cycle is usually in August-November, and this year's production recovery is completely less than expected. Once the production is greatly reduced at this stage, the production will start to fall after entering the winter, and the export data will be stable, and the inventory will be low, it will continue. Support palm oil to strengthen. From the production and demand data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) in August, this logic is being accepted by the market.
Win****** 2017/9/27 15:01:51
The teacher admires you very much, is upgrading, and recommend a strategic opportunity!
A: Near the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the festival will not forget the risk, and the pre-holiday exchange will increase the deposit, which will take effect after settlement today. Before the holiday, the market volatility converges and the decline strength fades. Stop the short position, and leave the bag for safety, and have a good holiday. Sometimes it is a strategy to retreat into the future. I hope that after you join the enlightenment, you will understand each other and better grasp the future trend.
3. Other
New ****** 2017/9/27 9:51:01
Teacher, is the logic of aluminum policy still there?
A: The impact of the supply-side reform policy on the electrolytic aluminum industry runs through 2017. The policy is constantly falling, and the price has reached a new high of nearly five years. The environmental protection policy in the heating season constitutes a potential expectation, the logic of bullishness remains unchanged, and more consideration should be given to the safety margin of entry.
Win****** 2017/9/27 9:36:07
Admire the enlightenment on the precise operation of the market, the iron mine 570's Jiancang cloth, palm 5200 Jiancang
What kind of risk points do you need to pay attention to before asking the teacher? My funds are OK, but the variety configuration is far too far from Enlightenment. Any good suggestions, sincerely learn from you.
A: This is mainly due to our analytical logic. The correct choice of direction and variety must start with macro and industry. The entry position must have a high margin of safety. By doing this, it will reduce many random transactions and increase the success rate. Derivatives trading fund management is the first and most difficult for many investors to do. Many of the enlightened customers feel the deepest is to take the trend list, which is the rational fund management and effective variety configuration. Interested friends can contact us to further communicate with us in this regard. Enlighten the investment to seek objective and rigorous, predict logic, and verify changes.
P****** 2017/9/27 9:57:47
How to stay in the National Day holiday?
A: If you don't understand your trading style, you must first look at whether you are a short-term or trend trading. Short-term position management is not mentioned here. The position management of trend trading should be based on the volatility of the varieties in hand and the capital risk rate of the total positions. Generally speaking, the more varieties there are, the lower the capital risk faced by the same positions; but if your positions are all black, such highly volatile varieties are another matter. Currently facing the eleven long holidays, the appropriate order is for security.
Bi****** 2017/9/27 11:01:47
Teacher, I am very confused about the speed increase. As for the year-on-year growth rate of GDP, the growth rate is declining, that is also increasing, but also considering the problem of the base number. Even if the number of equivalent values ​​increases, it is definitely the growth rate from the perspective of growth rate. But this does not seem to indicate the economic downturn. . . Why do many analysis articles see the decline in growth rate as the economic downturn? How to dialectically look at the data of growth rate?
A: GDP is growing continuously, but it does not mean that prices have been rising, and prices are constantly seeking a balance between supply and demand. The judgment of the speed increase is an expected correction.
Second, enlighten the classic sharing review
August 11th: “High prices of steel and high profits, because the prices of raw materials and auxiliary materials will rise with the increase of steel prices, further eroding the profits of steel mills. If prices are transmitted downstream, the result of inflation is contrary to the original intention of reform. Futures The upside is suppressed, which is intended to cool the black system and guide the funds to exit."
August 22: "The introduction of the exchange regulatory policy is to cool the market from the futures side, improve the overheated market sentiment to the spot side. The intention of the regulatory policy should be correctly understood, and not the only condition for judging the market."
August 29: “Double coke hit the biggest drop in single day since the beginning of June, iron ore hit a new low, and ferrosilicon fell. The weakening of raw materials led to the thread, hot coil, black bullish sentiment. The management cooled the market. The impact of the move on the market will gradually emerge."
September 1st: “At this stage, the production capacity refers to the strip steel, medium frequency furnace, illegal enterprises and enterprises that are not up to the standard of environmental protection. It is backward production capacity and has little impact on large and medium-sized enterprises that meet the standards.â€
September 5th: "The accelerated upward movement of the thread is accompanied by emotional excitement. However, when the downstream conduction is slightly unfavorable, the price of raw materials is first to fall, and the profit of the capital is expected to strengthen, there will be no pressure on the rhythm of the market."
September 13th: “The black supply and demand both sides are weak, the supply end environmental protection and production limit is more stringent, and the passive accumulation of demand end stocks reflects the downstream unsatisfactory. The excessive optimism of winter environmental protection and steel enterprise profits needs to return to rationality. In addition, attention should be paid to the macroscopic changes."
September 15th: “Enlightenment has always emphasized the “overdraft expectation†of emotional premiums. While the current passive rise in inventory or weak macro data in manufacturing, the expectation of overdraft is being falsified and optimism is reversed.â€
September 21st: "When the iron ore fell to the 500-integer mark, the market was full of doubts about the downturn and the urge to buy at the bottom. And Enlightenment insisted that the strong posture of the bears continued."
September 22: "The Fed opened its contraction in October, and the US dollar strengthened. S&P downgraded China's long-term sovereign credit rating. The August data reflected that the economy was not as optimistic as expected, and investment, exports and industrial added value fell. Macro instability, It will become the "tipping point" when the market is overheated."
Third, the analytical logic of enlightenment investment
[Enlightenment Technology Research Group] relying on the results of the Enlightenment Strategy Analysis Group, focusing on technical research, in line with the technical practical courses and market opportunities of the system that has been enlightened for many years of experience, promptly prompting and guiding, helping traders to improve operational skills, position management, stop loss settings, etc. Finally, it can form a relatively complete operating system. I hope to bring you a better investment experience, welcome to contact us.
Qidi Investment's understanding of the market is based on logic and the safety margin of absolute advantage. Walking in front of the market will be the winner. Investment Advisory ID: Z0012417 Risk Disclosure:
1. This strategic perspective is based on the information available to the researcher, and the actual results may vary greatly depending on the conditions. Investors are advised to make independent trading decisions. The company does not make any guarantees on the results of the transaction.
2. The market is uncertain, and the consistent view of past strategies does not guarantee the correctness of the current strategic view. Companies and other researchers may express opinions that differ from this strategy.
3. Within the law, companies or affiliates may trade on the types involved, or may provide services for other company transactions.
(Editor: Shao Yidi HF116)
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