IF, IH, IC main contract and stock market will have repeated, will fall back next Monday
[Fundamental] As of November 9, according to cme settlement data, the S&P 500 (e-mini s&p500) esz7 contract settlement price reported 2584 points, down 7 points from the previous day, down 0.27%, volume 2,203,891 lots, the previous transaction The number of open positions was 3,156,032 lots; the settlement price of the e-mini dow ymz7 contract was 23,416 points, down 75 points from the previous day, down 0.32%, the volume was 222,049 lots, and the number of open positions on the previous trading day was 154,638 lots. The Nasdaq 100 (e-mini nasdaq100) nqz7 contract settlement price reported 6341.5 points, down 27 points from the previous day, a decrease of 0.43%, the volume of 549,540 lots, the previous trading day the number of open positions 275,482 hands. Analysts of international derivatives think tanks believe that although the three major index main contracts have experienced a decline in volume, they have subsequently rebounded. The current Dow and the S&P 500 uptrend line are still valid, and the overall uptrend has not changed, while the Nasdaq can focus on the support of the 6210 neckline below.
[Trends forecast] IF, IH and IC main contract and Shanghai Composite Index rebounded continuously at the beginning of this week, strong rise, now the market is difficult to have unilateral, there will be repeated, after the short-term surge, the market is facing a callback demand, the sea is expected to fall next Monday. Falling.
Corn, corn starch will have a breakthrough, next week bullish
[Fundamental] Sydney November 10 news, the US Department of Agriculture raised the US corn output forecast in the latest supply and demand report on Thursday, CBOT corn futures held steady in early trading on Friday, but still not off a one-year low. The main contract for corn futures was last reported at 3.41-1/4 US dollars per bushel, down 0.2%. It has fallen nearly 2% since this week and is expected to record a decline for the second consecutive week. Intraday corn futures on Thursday hit a record low since November 2016 -- $3.40-3/4 per bushel. Soybean futures have fallen by about 1.5% this week, and are expected to record the biggest weekly decline since August 15. Wheat futures have risen more than 0.5% since this week and are expected to record the largest weekly gain since September 15. Washington, November 10 news: The US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report released on Thursday showed that US corn production and ending stocks in 2017/18 were higher than market participants' average expectations. This also caused the US corn futures price to fall. The US Department of Agriculture report shows that US corn production for 2017/18 is estimated at 14.478 billion bushels, up from the 14.28 billion bush forecast in October, but still below the 2016/17-15.148 billion. This month, the US Department of Agriculture maintained the US corn harvest area unchanged at 83.1 million acres; yields rose to 175.4 pu/acre, up from 171.8 pu/acre predicted in October, and higher than last year's 174.6 pu/acre.
[Trends forecast] Corn and corn starch will fall back again, and the market will continue to rebound. The recent trend will be repeated, and the shock will pick up. Don’t worry too much, the space above the corn will gradually open. The sea thinks that the market will start to be bigger next week. The rebound, the lower support in the short-term performance is stronger, the performance is more resistant, and on Monday, we can continue to face the callback and continue to do more.
Cotton stabilizes, there will be a new round of pull up
[Fundamental] New York, November 9 news, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton contract fell on Thursday, hit an early two-month high in the session, due to the US Department of Agriculture's global agricultural products 000061, stocks supply and demand forecast report Empty. The March cotton contract closed down 0.32 cents, or 0.46%, at 68.54 cents a pound, with intraday trading at 68.34-69.67 cents, the latter at its highest level since September 12. The November supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday showed that the US cotton production forecast for 2017/18 was raised to 21.38 million bales, compared with an estimated 21.12 million bales in October. The US Department of Agriculture also raised its global cotton production forecast by 600,000 bales to 1.2146 billion bales, and raised US cotton carryover stocks by 300,000 bales to 6.1 million bales. However, the global cotton carryover stock estimate was lowered by 1.5 million bales to 90.88 million bales. French Industrial Bank 601166, stock analyst Gabriel Crivorot said: "Although the global cotton carryover stocks estimate is a bit more bullish, the US year-end inventory forecast has a big impact on prices." He added that the report is generally "slightly empty" ". According to the export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday, for the week ending November 2, the net sales of upland cotton exports in the United States in 2017/18 was 205,300 bales, and the net sales of upland cotton exports in 2018/19 were 31,200 bales.
[Trends forecast] Cotton rebounded 15,000 as scheduled, and 15000 was fully stabilized. The market will try to recover again. The previous market fell to the previous low and there was support. This week, it slowly stabilized and rebounded, and the market once again showed a substantial plunge. The probability is very small, the night plate and tomorrow will not rule out a new pull up market, the operation suggests that more than one single will continue to enter the market, continue to enter the market on a dip, there is a new high.
Egg pressure to support, relying on support to continue to bullish
[Fundamental] On November 9th, the national egg price continued to rise. The sales areas in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong were generally raised. The production area was stable and increased. The farmers were mainly cleared. The egg merchants were more active in buying. On the other hand, it is expected that the market outlook will continue to rise but the increase will be limited. The price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.80-4.10, and the gains expanded. JD1801 contract, holding steady 4350-4400, broke the long-short balance market, with the technical conditions of impacting the high price before 4600 Mid-Autumn Festival. Due to the shortage of laying hens, the tight supply of eggs has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people at the end of the year. Based on this judgment, the spot price of eggs has risen. The market for long-term market is dominated by multiple trading, paying attention to the light position game and breaking the upper end. The resistance zone continued to participate in long trades. The recent rise in contracts and the growing profits of laying hens have brought pressure on the far-month price. The short-term near-strong and weak-weak pattern is highlighted, and there are arbitrage opportunities.
[Trends forecast] Eggs fell back today, the overall increase slightly, back to the moving average, although the recent market has repeated but the overall market rebounded stronger, the market outlook is higher, is expected to continue to rise, the previous pressure turned into support, fundamental merchants Reluctant to sell support, environmental protection is still a hot topic, the new rising pattern has begun, continue to rebound and rise, the sea believes that the market is rising in the long-term operation, the operation continues to rely on the average line layout last week, and the high rolling down.
White sugar first explores and then rises again, it is difficult to fall
[Fundamental] The price of the disk was fluctuating this morning. The price of the processing sugar group was stable. The details are as follows: Liaoning: Yingkou North Sugar Co., Ltd.: Yinxia brand cotton white sugar offer 6800 yuan / ton, white sugar new sugar offer 6750 yuan / ton, the price is unchanged, the transaction is general. Hebei: COFCO (Tangshan) Sugar Co., Ltd. is not available for quotation. Shandong: Rizhao Lingyunhai Sugar Group Co., Ltd.: Lingxue brand white sugar is not available for quotation, and the price of white sugar is 6900 yuan/ton. Shandong Xingguang Sugar Industry Group Co., Ltd.: Star Friends brand refined white sugar (young sugar) offer 7500 yuan / ton, excellent grade white sugar offer 6900 yuan / ton, white sugar 6850 yuan / ton. The transaction was good. Fujian: Louis Duff (Fujian) Refined Sugar Co., Ltd.: Nandingshan brand grade granulated sugar (carbonized) offer 6750 yuan / ton, refined fine sugar 50 kg (carbonized) offer 7025 yuan / ton, the transaction is general. Fujian Sugar Co., Ltd.: The price of “Jianhualan†brand first-class sugar car produced in 2017 is 6,720 yuan/ton. The price of “White Magnolia†brand first-class sugar car produced in March 2017 is 6,700 yuan/ton. No change, the transaction is general. Guangdong: Guangdong Jinling Sugar Group Beibuwan Warehouse produced a processing price of 6640 yuan/ton of processed sugar in 2017. The price is unchanged and the transaction is general.
[Trends forecast] White sugar fell today, the external disk weakened, the sea believes that the overall will rise, the average return, the market wide fluctuations, the overall maintenance of the upward trend, the sea believes that the long-term rise of sugar opened, this week slowly fluctuated and increased Yangxian, today is driven by the external disk, the operation of the sea believes that the night and next week will continue to accelerate the rise, next week will be the first callback and then rise, more than a single layout holding, the new multi-single continued to participate in the bargain, before holding more, Rolling and taking profit.
Oil and fat are under pressure and will continue to fall next Monday.
[Fundamental] China Economic Net reported on November 10: Recently, both long and short sides competed fiercely in the domestic soybean meal futures at around RMB 2,800/ton. However, this pattern may change. From an international perspective, the US soybeans are high-yielding, but the harvesting period is subject to precipitation, yields or downward adjustments, and South American soybean planting progress is slow. Domestically, soybean imports were smoother, and oilseed soybean meal stocks continued to fall, while cumulative sales of soybean meal increased slightly year-on-year. In addition, considering that soybean meal will enter the peak demand season, the supply and demand pattern may be tightened, so it is expected that the fourth quarter futures price is expected to remain strong. On Friday morning, the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures market closed slightly lower as the external market weakened. As of noon, palm oil futures fell by RM13 to RM28, with the benchmark January crude palm oil contract falling by RM28, to close at RM27, 181/ton. The trading period for the morning benchmark period is between RM2,777 and RM2,793. In the Asian electronic trading, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil weakened. As of 11:53 in Beijing, the soyoil period in December fell by about 0.17 cents to close at 34.97 cents per pound. China's big business palm oil and soybean oil futures are lower, which also dragged the popularity of Malaysia's crude palm oil market. The strong exchange rate of the ringgit is also negative for the disk because it weakens the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil exports.
[Trends forecast] The recent rhythm of oil and fat has been different, and the overall trend of the disk has been adjusted. The market has been strong and strong yesterday. We clearly analyzed the pressure on the top. This position is easy to fall and it is difficult to rise. Today, the market is under pressure and the weak returns. The sea is expected to continue to fall at night and next Monday.
Rubber begins to adjust and will continue to oscillate next Monday
[Fundamental] Tokyo November 9 news, Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) index rubber fell further on Thursday, due to the weakness of Hujiao and the global demand for sluggish concerns to suppress the market. After the TOCOM rubber hit a nearly one-month high of 207 yen on Tuesday, it suffered a profit-taking. TOCOM's April rubber futures closed down 1.6 yen, with a settlement price of 203.1 yen per kilogram. According to data released by the Rubber Trade Association of Japan on Thursday, 10 days after October 20, Japan's raw rubber stocks increased by 9.1% to 5,784 tons from 10 days ago, and 5,302 on October 10th. Ton. Hujiao's main January contract closed down 110 yuan or 0.8% to 13,805 yuan per ton. The Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM) recently posted a new report of 142.80 cents per kilogram in December, down 1 cent. The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China issued an announcement to investigate the anti-dumping investigation of imported nitrile rubber originating in Korea and Japan. The investigation period determined by this investigation is from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017, during the industrial damage investigation period. It is from January 1, 2014 to June 30, 2017.
[Trends forecast] Rubber has a perfect grasp of the rhythm this week. Last Friday's night, the internal customers were more than one. The weekends were profitable. After the big rise, we once again judged that the market began to oscillate repeatedly. There will be a callback, and then the callback will come as scheduled. On Wednesday, we followed the disk again and again, and then the market continued to rise, more than a single high point and accurate profit, profiteering and then closed, and now the market began to adjust, the sea is expected to night and next Monday rubber will remain volatile.
Pp, L, pta, asphalt and methanol turning points are accurately grasped and will continue to fall next Monday.
[Fundamental] Futures Daily reported on November 10th: The 2017 PTA Futures Forum hosted by Zheng Shang is held in Hangzhou on November 9. Chen Huaping, chairman of Zhengshang Institute, said at the meeting that he would do a good job in promoting product and business innovation, leveraging existing product advantages, promoting institutional innovation and technological innovation, promoting market opening up, and promoting regulatory capacity building. Practical actions implement the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the spirit of the National Financial Work Conference. The methanol market in Henan Province fluctuated at a high level, and the mainstream methanol enterprises in the region were shipped at around 2,850 yuan/ton. It is also known that the mainstream price of Luoyang traders is around 2800-2850 yuan / ton, and the shipment is acceptable. Shandong Union's 750,000 tons/year coal-to-methanol plant currently has a daily output of 1,500 tons. The company said that the latest factory price of methanol is raised by 50 yuan/ton to 2860-2880 yuan/ton. The retail price of methanol in Shandong Yankuang Group was temporarily stable, with Guojiao 2800 yuan/ton, Guohong 2800 yuan/ton, and Luhua 2820 yuan/ton. It is also known that Guojiao, Luhua and Guohong are stable. The PP market was loose in a narrow range, and some brands were lowered by 50-100 yuan/ton. Along with the futures correction, most players in the market believe that the recent rally is over, the market outlook is increasing, and the risk aversion is strong.
[Trends forecast] pp, L, pta, asphalt and methanol have intensified their recent strength and weakness. Last week, the overall market stability was obvious, first weak and strong, we clearly pointed out that after the continuous decline, the market is expected to start a wave of rebound, searchable add WeChat :dhkq123, there is a firm to guide the public number to continuously recommend everyone to participate in more than a single key, the intraday is the whole process of reminding, laughing at this wave of red envelopes. Afterwards, the surge was as expected, but we analyzed that the recent highs have been weak, the market has been stabbing incessantly, the signs of building the roof are obvious, the overall trend is gradually weakening, the judgment will fall back, the rhythm turning point will be accurately grasped again, the sea is expected to be at night. Chemicals will continue to fall next Monday.
The threaded hot-rolled iron ore is repeated again and will fall back
[Fundamental] International Business Daily reported on November 10: In the first three quarters of 2017, China's steel export value and import value are now steadily increasing. At the same time, the performance of the steel industry's third quarterly report was outstanding. The gross profit margin, net profit margin and return on equity (ROE) of industrial enterprises increased sharply year-on-year, and the industry supply and demand pattern showed an upward trend. Futures Daily reported on November 10th: Starting from November 15th, 2017, the “2+26†urban heating season production will be officially implemented, which will affect the production of about 40 million tons of crude steel. Recently, steel supply and demand still maintains a tight balance pattern. The growth rate of crude steel output has dropped significantly, and exports and net exports have fallen sharply, returning to the domestic market. However, social inventories have continued to decline in the near term, with absolute values ​​at historical lows. With the official implementation of the reduction in production, there is a possibility that the contradiction between supply and demand will intensify, and steel prices will continue to move upward. Foreign media on November 9th: China's iron ore imports fell to the lowest level in more than a year last month as steel mills prepared to reduce production according to the restrictions imposed by the Beijing government. According to the British "Financial Times" website reported on November 8, in October, due to the "winter heating season" limited production and "Golden Week" holiday and other factors, the iron ore shipped to China decreased by 23% to 7950. Ten thousand tons.
[Trends forecast] Thread hot coil and iron ore on Wednesday night market quickly pulled up, reversed and strengthened, we decisively follow the disk, it is recommended that you transfer more operations, the rhythm is perfectly grasped, after the big rise, the market strength is intensified, today's thread heat The volume once again rose strongly, the iron ore was relatively weak, and the pressure on the market was severe. The sea is expected to hit the night and the next week, the thread hot-rolled iron ore will fall back.
Copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum rebound will not change, and will continue to fall next Monday.
[Fundamental] Melbourne, November 10 news, the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper fell slightly off a month low on Friday, the dollar weakened across the board, boosting the base metals, but copper is still likely to record this week Have to lose. LME three-month copper rose 0.08% to $6813.5 a tonne, and the previous trading day hit a low of $6,761.50 per tonne since October 11. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main copper 1801 contract fell 0.21% to 53,430 yuan per ton. LME three-month copper positions have fallen below 320,000 contracts, the lowest since May, close to a one-year low. The dollar fell to a six-day low against a basket of currencies on Thursday as investors worried about the Republican tax reform plan. The tax reform plan may delay the reduction of corporate taxes. The Tankan survey showed on Friday that Japan’s manufacturing confidence in November fell from a 10-year high in the previous month, but it remained strong, highlighting the continued economic expansion. Armed separatists have occupied five villages in the Indonesian province of Papua, which may have disrupted the operation of the large Grasberg copper mine of the US Freeport McMillan Copper and Gold Company. The copper mine has been hit this year due to labor disputes and disputes over operational rights.
[Trends forecast] Copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum have rebounded and rebounded in the near future. In a sound of bullishness and chasing, only the sea has a unique eye. After a continuous rebound, Monday, we will judge the rhythm of the rhythm and will fall back and fall. The public number recommended that everyone participate in the empty list. The internal customers in the group are decisively entering the market. The whole process is prompt, firmly held, and the profit is once again in the pocket. The market can be said to be perfect. Now the market is weak and difficult to change. The rebound is empty. Admission opportunities, the sea is expected to night and next Monday, copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum will continue to go down, empty orders focus on participation.
Gold and silver will have a high drop, and the market will be repaired.
[Fundamental] Spot gold continued to rise on Thursday (November 9), the US market hit a maximum of 1288.39 US dollars / ounce, the weak dollar pushed the price of gold to a three-week high, which is gold for two consecutive days. The data released during the day was mixed. The data showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the US until November 4 was 239,000, higher than the previous value and expectations. With the demise of the hurricane, the US jobless claims have gradually recovered, and the number of initial jobless claims has started to rise, but it is still below the 300,000 mark for 140 consecutive weeks, indicating that the job market is still healthy; the US wholesale sales rate in September 1.3%, lower than the previous value, higher than expected, the US wholesale sales and inventory growth rate announced this time are not high, the store-to-sales ratio fell to 1.27, the lowest since the end of 2014. According to data released by the Gold Association on Thursday, demand for gold fell to its lowest level in eight years. In the last quarter, jewellery buying fell, and funds flowing into gold ETFs also dried up, which constituted resistance to the rise in gold.
[Trends forecast] Gold and silver fluctuated widely, slightly increased, the trend of gold and silver fluctuated unstable, normal repair rebounded, the recent rhythm is accurate, profit is constant, the recent trend of gold and silver will still jump out of the adjustment situation, there will be high Falling back to the market, the sea believes that the operation of the night plate and next week, the high-altitude singles rebounded after the main rebound.
The center of gravity of the thermal coal moves up and is not easy to fall, and will continue to rise.
[Fundamental] On Thursday, domestic commodities opened at different levels, the black system generally fell, coke led the decline, the decline exceeded 3.2%; iron ore fell more than 2%, thermal coal opened slightly higher. Basic metals were mixed, nickel, aluminum and copper were lower, and Shanghai nickel fell more than 1.6%. On Wednesday, the domestic commodity night black opened higher and expanded. The main contract of the coking coal coke of Dashang Co., Ltd. hit a new high since October 16, at 1,215.5 yuan / ton and 1,899 yuan / ton, up 2.79% and 3.32%. The main contract of Zhengshang Power Coal Futures has refreshed its high point since October 9 to 639.8 yuan/ton, and the day has risen 1.43%. The main contract of the hot coil in the previous period approached the integer mark of 4,000 yuan, refreshing the high point since October 26 to 3,997 yuan / ton, up 2.33% in the day; the main contract of rebar rose through the 3,800 yuan integer mark, refreshed on October 25 Since the high point to 3,808 yuan / ton, the day rose 1.95%. The main contract of Zhengshang Sugar Futures has refreshed its high point since August 29 to 6,487 yuan / ton, up 0.56%.
[Trends forecast] Today's thermal coal exploration averages rebounded. Yesterday, the rushing high was once again fulfilled perfectly. The trend fluctuated sharply, but the center of gravity moved up. The sea believed that the thermal coal recovered from the market, but there was a repair and recurrence in the short term. The impact pressure is adjusted back, the sea thinks that the operation is short-term operation is good, the night plate and next week can continue to do more than the low point of the callback, high rolling and take profit.
The glass will rise again, and the callback will rise.
[Fundamental] On November 10, China's glass composite index was 1,153.59 points, up 0.74 points from the previous week and up 75.44 points from the same period of last year. China's glass price index was 1,174.71 points, up 0.69 points from the previous week and up 90.87 points from the same period of last year. China Glass Confidence Index was 1069.11 points, up 0.94 points from the previous week and up 13.72 points from the same period last year. Since the beginning of the month, the overall trend of the glass spot market has fluctuated, mainly due to the recent adjustment of regional production lines, which has changed the original regional balance structure, and there is a possibility of increasing the difference in the later period. The cold repair and shutdown of the three float glass production lines in Shahe area played an important role in alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand in the local and surrounding markets. Although it is not reflected in the short term, as the pressure on manufacturers' inventory is reduced, the price support will be prominent. At the same time, it will also change the original product flow, flow and flow rate, as well as the inertia of the original product price. In the recent spot trend, the narrow range is mainly shocked. In some regions, production companies follow their own conditions and adjust flexibly.
[Trends forecast] The glass has surged sharply as scheduled, the market has recently repeated and fluctuated greatly, and the recent market has once again hit a new high. The transformation of the sea's thinking prompts more than one single entry. At present, the technical level of the daily line forms the bottom of the W, which is difficult to achieve in the short term. Falling, the sea believes that the short-term glass will have a small correction, the overall no longer recommend the layout of empty orders, the callback can be done in a light warehouse, will rise, roll more
Coking coal coke high adjustment, will fall back next Monday
[Fundamental] In mid-September, coke fell sharply, and market sentiment fell into a trough. Recently, black commodities have shown signs of stabilizing. The author believes that the heating season will be limited production, not to limit the possibility of increasing production, and the steel mill blast furnace operating rate will be significantly improved due to the steel demand suppressed by the heating season or concentrated release in the first half of next year. At the same time, the coke price may usher in the situation of rising volume and price. We believe that the safety margin of establishing a coke 1805 contract at the current point is higher. From the perspective of the upstream market, this year the National Development and Reform Commission actively urged the release of advanced production capacity. However, with the deepening of the industrial integration of the coal market, the capacity of superimposed large enterprises has been released less than expected. At present, the coal market still has a gap between supply and demand. In the future, the production capacity will be released slowly. In the context of the coal supply gap, there will be a shrinking process, which will be a relatively slow process. Overall, there is limited room for future coal price decline.
[Trends forecast] Coking coal coke last Wednesday night, the market quickly rose, reversing the strength, we decisively follow the disk, I suggest you transfer more operations, the rhythm is perfectly grasped, this week's market continues upward, strong and obvious, after the continuous rise, the market is on schedule Some adjustments have been repeated, and the sea is expected to fall back at night and next week, coking coal coke will rise.
(Editor: Shao Yidi HF116)
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